A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
